I mean, you might as well say that, like, public health is useless because some people aren't going to quit smoking. Andrew Gelman: What he's doing, he's doing standard practice. Gelman of course has had a lot to say about this, and I've enjoyed going through his blog. That's a second study. Because I would have thought, 'Wow. And sometimes not. The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time. there's a lot of smart people on both sides of this issue who disagree. This is also why many economists are struggling to understand what a scientific theory is. Correct? If anything, scientists are overly committed to the Popperian notion of hypothesis and falsification. I have evidence for that claim. But my view was always this seemed silly to me. Although the number of 42% sounds a little high. So, the first problem is that, it's not true that if nothing were going on there's less than a 5% chance that you'd see something so extreme. Saying “these results are minimally significant but unreplicated” is a much less convincing to a lay audience then “these results are statistically significant”. But, it's evidently a real paper. | So, more and more people are doing field experiments rather than lab experiments; are doing big studies. Collaborative file editing is currently unavailable. We did an analysis of decision-making for radon gas--for radon in your house, which can give you cancer--and using a sort of technocratic approach or a statistical approach, we found that a targeted measurement and intervention, if applied nationally, could save billions of dollars without losing any lives. Great. I'm not denying that. Here's the problem with it. Changes will not be saved until you press the "Save" button. However, alpha (the “p” in p less than 0.05) and statistical power are just generally agreed upon values, they are not holy writ. And rip up some trees. He says: “We got to talking over lunch and we realized in each of the areas for which we were experts on, that Westerners were unusual compared to all the other populations that had been studied. And the idea--I mean, there is some vague theory behind it, that this is a time of life where, if the kids can be prepared it can make a big difference. So where does that leave me? Go with the ESP first. Columbia Statistics. This is a subreddit for discussion on all things dealing with statistical theory, software, and application. I guess I'm having trouble because near the beginning of the paper, he seems to indicate that he's not accusing researchers of being unethical and chasing significant results (or am I wrong about this?) The general elections, easier to study than the primary election, because the general election is controlled, and the primary election is uncontrolled. Since then I have read enough to appreciate that statistics is, at its heart, a very solidly derived branch of pure mathematics. We were taught that this is the way empirical work gets done. I wasn’t thinking so much about them looking at data. I definitely agree in principle, but the thing about the forking paths is that the number of possibilities grows exponentially the more data dependent your procedure becomes. They try something else. And when they did it on a very large scale, it didn't work so well. audio garbled--Econlib Ed. And what he says is important. So, what do I do there? I would assume. Indeed, it makes me skeptical if the rest of your argument. And your point is that, well, it kind of had to be or it wouldn't be published. So, in economics, you have: Get your identification. And it's typically illustrated in textbooks with examples of coin-flipping. So, your more accurate definition than mine was, I think, had at least two negatives. Whereas the old study is uncontrolled. About how you can get false positives through p-hacking. And, I don't really--I have no reason to think the authors of this paper were "p-hacking." When I do stuff in the human body, it's often pharmacology. It would be illuminating to have a guest on EconTalk explore the nexus of big data and disparate impact. I hope that listeners appreciate what a fantastic podcast episode this was. Or, throughout the economy, 'Let's create a couple more recessions and create some discontinuities.' I think a solution is that people in all fields get more comfortable with the idea of treating nearly all data analyses as preliminary and exploratory, and separating that cleanly from confirmatory work which uses rigidly pre-specified models and out-of-sample validation. But the flip side is that these studies are small. Center for Open Science then the statistical significance test, it's doing that for you. Email the webmaster@econlib.org to request restoring this comment and your comment privileges. And if so, how do I decide which ones?' Now, is that still the case? I wouldn't want to personalize it with respect to Jim Heckman. And all it really comes down to is ideology and gut instinct? I don't like these cutesy results that fill all these pop books by authors whose names we are not going to mention, that use these really clever, bizarre results; but they are peer-reviewed and they are statistically significant. I can’t say I liked it. Notes: – Extreme skepticism should be the default position for any statistical evaluation of human behavior. They were low-income parents. So, this study that was done was in a more traditional--like, take a pill, push a button. If this is not the case (that is, if different data processing and/or data analysis choices are made in different replications), then the sampling distribution of the test statistic will thus be different than advertised.

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